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Market & News

Key events July 15

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Base Metals:
Copper rose this morning topping below the $6,000 after finding some support last week at the 23.6% retracement around the $5,940 area. Next resistance could be at the $6,070 at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Below, $5,800 remains as main support. Cash to 3 months carry closed steady at $6.25 contango. Aluminium is experiencing high volatility, topping last week around the $1,850 and seems to trade now in a short-term uptrend with support at $1,810 and target at $1,870. Cash to 3 months carry remains at $19.75 contango. Nickel topped at $13,600, with main support at the $13,000 level 23.6% retracement. Cash to 3months remains at $60.50 contango. Zinc is topping at $2,440 below the first area of price interest $2,470. Below, the $2,350 remains as main support. Cash to 3s closed at $10.25 backwardation. Lead topped at the $1,990, highest since April. Below the $1,950 remains as support and $,2050 next resistance. The spread closed at $2 contango, with extended force majeure till end of the month support prices. Tin remains around the $18,200 and $18,450 as main resistance. The spread closed at $36.5 contango.

Precious metals
Gold remains above the $1,400 level, just at the same levels as Friday, trading at $1,413, despite good Chinese figures early today and DJI climbing to all-time highs. Interest rate cut expectations are bringing support to the safe haven assets. Silver also remains steady above the $15, trading at $15.25.
Platinum remains around the $830 and palladium remains around at $1,560.

Oil
Brent remained steady after the spike last week, trading at $66.52 on Friday and WTI slightly retraced -0.20% trading at $60.33. Chinese oil output rose in June 7.7%, capping further gains.

FX
USD remained steady against a basket of major currencies after dropping during the week due to dovish view of US Fed chairman Mr. Powell at the declaration in Washington. EUR is trading at 1.1275 and GBP at 1.2570 against the greenback.

Equities
DAX traded water finishing just at 12,323 and DJI rose 0.9% finishing at 27,332, a new historical record based on dovish view from US Fed and hopes of interest rate cut in 2 weeks which would mean cheaper financing costs for investment firms. Asian markets finished mainly up, with Nikkei closed as per Japanese bank holiday, HSI at +0.13% and SSEC at +0.1%.

Macro Data
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, NBS Press Conference, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate already released at 3.00 am with a 1% better Industrial production and Retail Sales than expected. US Empire State Manufacturing Index at 13.30.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 12

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Base Metals:
Copper remains steady above the $5,940 area, closing above the level and testing this morning the support. Next resistance could be seen at the $6,070 at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Below, $5,800 remains as main support. Cash to 3 months carry closed steady at $7 contango. Aluminium retraced $30 after touching the highest in almost 7 weeks $1,850 and is testing now the support $1,820. Below, the $1,800 remains as main support. Cash to 3 months carry rose to $20.50 contango. Nickel broke through the $13,000, tested the level and rose towards the $13,400 first resistance. Above, the $13,780 remains as the main resistance, the highest of the year. Full spread closed at $57 contango. Zinc lost momentum, topped at $2,440 and retraced towards the $2,360 current support., trading currently within the range. Cash to 3 months carry closed at $9 backwardation. Lead touched the resistance $1,980 and is trading within the $1,920-1980. Above, $2,050 seems to be the main resistance. Extended force majeure till end of the month support the movement. Full spread closed at $4 contango. Tin rose above the $18,000 and $17,600 remains main support and $18,450 as main resistance. The spread closed at $48 contango.

Precious metals
Gold remains above the $1,400 level after yesterday second day declaration day of Mr. Powell testifying in Washington. Dovish view of the US Fed and more than 70% of the market participants expecting a rate cut of 0.25% supported prices. Main support remains at $1,380 and resistance still at the $1,440. Silver remains trading at $15.15.
Platinum remains around the $830 and palladium dropped around $40 from the $1,600 level, pulled by the base metals mood yesterday afternoon.

Oil
Brent gained 0.28% yesterday trading at $66.95 and WTI rose +0.25% trading at $60.52, closed to the highest in 7 weeks after tensions in Middle-East and storm Barry expected to reach Mexican gulf soon which would hit output, reducing to less than half. Also dropping US stockpiles support prices.

FX
USD remained steady against a basket of major currencies after dropping during the week due to dovish view of US Fed chairman Mr. Powell at the declaration in Washington. EUR is trading at 1.1272 and GBP at 1.2548 against the greenback.

Equities
DAX kept dropping, losing 0.33% yesterday, finishing at 12,332 and DJI rose 0.85% finishing above the 27,000 at 27,088. Asian markets finished mainly up, with Nikkei +0.2%, HSI at +0.24% and SSEC at +0.44%.

Macro Data
Chinese Trade Balance and USD-Denominated Trade Balance during the day. European Industrial Production and ECOFIN Meetings. US PPI and Core PPI at 13.30. Chinese New Loans and M2 Money Supply from the 13th to the 15th.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 11

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Base Metals:
Base metals experienced yesterday a pushed towards monthly highest levels due to refuelled expectations of interest rate cut higher than initially expected, meaning from the 0.25% to the 0.50%, despite market participants still consider the higher probability on the initial one. Copper found resistance at the $5,970, still trading below the $6,000, next resistance still above at $6,070 at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Full spread closed at $11.50 contango. Aluminium broke through the highest since June at $1,840, slightly retracing now and having the next target at $1,880 level. Cash to 3s closed at $17 contango. Nickel sharply rose towards the $13,000 and broke through the resistance pointing at the moment at the $13,400 target. Support remains at the support-resistance level $13,000. The spread closed at $62 contango. Zinc rose $55 intraday, after touching the $2,350 support and is expected to find some resistance at the $2,420 area. Cash to 3 months carry closed again in backwardation at $4. Lead is experiencing one of the sharp rallies, after breaking through the $1,940 resistance level and having now some resistance at the $1,980 area. Above, $2,050 level seems to be the next target. Cash to 3s closed at $10.5 backwardation. Not only general tone in base metals but prolonged force majeure in Nyrstar mine in Australia is giving support to the prices and market structure. Tin is dropping below the $18,000 level, bringing Cash to months carry to a contango of $47.

Precious metals
Gold rose again above the $1,400 intraday after Mr. Powell testifying in Washington. More than 70% of market still targets a 0.25% interest rate cut, but yesterday words rekindled 0.50% rate cut expectations, which lifted precious metals towards the highest of the year. Current support remains at $1,380 and resistance still at the $1,440. Silver also rose some $0.20 trading at $15.25.
Platinum and palladium rose together with precious and base metals trading at $830 and $1,600 respectively this morning.

Oil
Brent gained 3.85% yesterday trading at $66.76 and WTI rose +4.14% trading at $60.41.

FX
USD dropped against a basket of major currencies as US Fed Mr. Powell remarked they will take the necessary steps, keeping an eye on inflation and employment. EUR rose 0.25% against the greenback trading at 1.1268 and GBP rose 0.45% at 1.2528.

Equities
DAX retraced 0.51% finishing at 12,373 and DJI rose 0.29% trading at 26,860. Asian markets finished mainly up, with Nikkei +0.51%, HSI at +0.74% and SSEC at +0.10%.

Macro Data
Eurogroup Meetings and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 12.30. US CPI, and Unemployment Claims at 13.30. US Fed Chairman Powell Testifies on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in Washington at 15.00. Natural Gas Storage at 15.30, 30-y Bond Auction at 18.01, Federal Budget Balance at 19.00. BOE Financial Stability Report and FPC Statement at 10.30.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 10

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Base Metals
Copper dropped below the $5,850 finding some support at $5,790 and recovered overnight topping this morning below the $5,880. Above, the $5,940 seems to be target. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $13.50 contango. Aluminium rose towards the $1,840 highest from June and long-term resistance. Mostar Aluminium was disconnected from electricity after being unable to pay any further costs, forcing to its closure. Full spread closed at $14 contango. Nickel broke the $12,800 and rose towards the $13,000 next resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Cash to 3 months carry $53.5 contango. Zinc found some support at $2,350 bouncing back up but still well below the current resistance $2,460 area. The spread closed at $8.5 contango, despite trading this morning again at $4 backwardation. Lead is getting support from the extension of force majeure at the Nyrstar mine in Australia till end of July, bringing prices towards the $1,940 resistance, up $70 intraday yesterday. Full spread closed at $2.75 contango. Tin dropped towards the $18,000 level with full spread closed at $33 contango.

Precious metals
Gold remains steady above the $1,390 but still below the $1,400 level. Mr. Powell declaration this evening in Washing is expected to bring some volatility to the market as a dovish view will awake expectations of rate cuts soon, lifting most probably prices, but a patient tone would pull prices towards the $1,340 area. Silver still remains around the $15 level waiting for gold move.
Platinum remains just above the $800 and palladium steady at $1,550 this morning.

Oil
Brent gained 0.47% yesterday trading at $64.18 and WTI rose +0.37% trading at $57.69.

FX
USD remains steady until further speeches from US Fed chairman give more details about intentions of central bank. EUR is trading at 1.1211 and GBP at 1.2451 against the greenback.

Equities
DAX retraced 0.85% finishing at 12,436 and DJI traded water finishing almost unchanged at 26,783 ahead US Fed chairman Mr. Powell testifying tonight in Washington were is expected to unveil the policy paths for the next meeting late this month. Asian markets finished mixed, with Nikkei -0.15%, HSI at +0.19% and SSEC at -0.58%.

Macro Data
European Industrial Production. Chinese CPI and PPI this morning at 2.30 in line with the expected. US Fed Chairman Powell Testifies on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in Washington at 15.00, Final Wholesale Inventories at 15.00, Crude Oil Inventories at 15.30 and 10-year Bond Auction at 18.01. UK GDP, Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Goods Trade Balance, Index of Services, Industrial Production at 09.30, 30 year Bond auction.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 9

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Base Metals:
Copper topped $5,950 and dropped afterwards towards the $5,850 support. Below, the $5,750 as lowest of June could be the target. The spread closed on Friday at $18.75 contango. Aluminium keeps trading within the range $$1,760-1,840, without any clear direction since beginning of May, but seems to have kind of short term resistance at $1,810, and breaking above could lead a move towards the $1,840. Cash to 3 months carry closed at $19 contango. Nickel found support at $12,000 last week, and bounced back up towards the $12,800 resistance, stopping just before. Cash to 3s closed at $44 contango. Zinc Broke through the $2,400 support, towards the $2,350 first stop and main support at the Q3 2018 lowest $2,300 area. Full spread was valued at $8.50 contango from $44 back last week. Lead found support at $1,860 after breaking the $1,920 upward support. Breaking below could result into a drop towards $1,830 level. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $11.5 contango. Tin remains steady above the $18,000 trading at $18,380 this morning and closing yesterday just below the $18,500. The spread went to contango area at $19.

Precious metals
Gold lost the $1,400 overnight ahead the US Fed Chairman Mr. Powell speech in Boston and after the voices of a less aggressive approach on interest rate cut. Is trading this morning within the current range $1,380-1,440. A movement of $60 would be expected if any of the levels broken. Silver remained around the $15 level.
Platinum retraced towards the $800 support keeping it untouched and palladium dropped more than $20 trading at $1,545 this morning.

Oil
Brent gained 0.76% on Friday trading at $64.78 and WTI remains steady trading at $57.41.

FX
USD rose against a basket of major currencies with the EUR trading at 1.1207 and the GBP being traded at 1.2484 this morning, on forecasts for less aggressive approach on rate cut from the US Fed.

Equities
DAX lost 0.20% finishing at 12,543 and DJI retraced 0.43%, till the 26,806. Cooled expectations on a US Fed rate cut weighted on riskier assets. Asian markets finished mixed, with Nikkei +0.14%, HSI at -0.71% and SSEC at -0.20%.

Macro Data
US NFIB Small Business Index at 11.00. US Fed Chairman Powell Speaks in Boston at 13.45. JOLTS Job Openings at 15.00, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism during the day.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 8

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Base Metals:
Copper lost and tested the $5,940 level, unable to break through, finding some support at the $5,850. Below the current support, $5,750 as lowest of June could be the target. The spread closed on Friday at $11.75 contango. Aluminium keeps trading within the range $$1,760-1,840, without any clear direction since beginning of May. Cash to 3 months carry closed at $19 contango. Nickel found support at $12,000 last week, and bounced back up towards the $12,800 resistance, breaking through the $12,530 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Cash to 3s closed at $62 contango. Zinc Broke through the $2,400 support, towards the $2,350 first stop and main support at the Q3 2018 lowest $2,300 area. Full spread was valued at $5 backwardation from $44 back last week. Lead found support at $1,860 after breaking the $1,920 upward support. Breaking below could result into a drop towards $1,830 level. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $13 contango. Tin remains steady above the $18,000 trading at $18,430 this morning. The spread remains steady at $5 backwardation.

Precious metals
Gold dropped below the $1,400 level as some voices from the market pointed out the probability of the US Fed keeping untouched the interest rates, which would cool down buying appetite on non-paying interest metal. Despite the market discounting this, Gold is trading this morning still above the $1,400 level, within the current range $1,800-1,440. A movement of $60 would be expected if any of the levels broken. Silver is testing the$15 support.
Platinum retraced towards the $800 support and palladium remains steady trading at $1,563.

Oil
Brent gained 1.69% on Friday trading at $64.16 and WTI rose +1.09% trading at $57.41.

FX
USD rose against a basket of major currencies with the EUR trading at 1.1220 and the GBP being traded at 1.2523 this morning.

Equities
DAX lost 0.49% finishing at 12,568and DJI retraced 0.16%, till the 26,922 level, as expectations on a US Fed rate cut cooled down and markets forecasts on a 25% probability keeping them untouched. Asian markets finished also down, with Nikkei -0.98%, HSI at -1.83% and SSEC at -2.64%.

Macro Data
German Industrial Production and German Trade Balance at 07.00. European Sentix Investor Confidence at 09.00. US Consumer Credit at 20.00.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 5

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Base Metals:
Copper found resistance at the $5,950 level and retraced towards the $5,850 support, still some $40 above. $5,800-5,950 remains the range. Cash to 3 months carry closed at $11 contango. Aluminium rose but still trading within the range $1,760-1,840. Full spread was valued at $22.75 contango. Nickel is trading between the support $12,000 and the next resistance $12,540. When breaking any of those limits we would expect a move of some $200. The spread closed at $70 contango. Zinc dropped towards the support $2,400 after breaking the $2,460 above and being unable to regain it. $2,350 seems to be the next support below, lowest of the year. The spread closed at just $9.50 back from $44. Lead remains above the $1,860 support and below the $1,920 resistance. $1,830 could be the support if further drops, and $1,770 even lower. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $14.25 contango. Tin remains steady at the $18,350 and full spread came back to $8 backwardation.

Precious metals
Gold remains above the $1,400 around the $1,410 level as expected on a quiet day due to US bank holiday. US fundamentals are usually released on Thursday and this week will be published today. We would expected a rise in volatility ahead US Unemployment rate and Non-Farm Employment change being shown at 13.30 GMT. Silver remains at similar levels trading at $15.21 with $15 as main support.
Platinum remains steady at $835 and palladium traded water at $1,563.

Oil
Brent lost 1.30% yesterday trading at $63.10 and WTI retraced 0.94% trading at $56.84.

FX
USD remains steady against the EUR trading at 1.1273 and the GBP, being traded at 1.2576 this morning.

Equities
DAX traded water and rose just 0.11% finishing at 12,629. DJI was closed yesterday. Asian markets finished up, with Nikkei +0.2%, HSI at +0.03% and SSEC at +0.27%.

Macro Data
German Factory Orders down -2.2% vs -0.1 forecasted. US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 13.30.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 4

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Base Metals:
Copper tested the $5,850 level and bounced back up to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Main support remains at the $5,800 level and breaking through the current resistance could lift prices towards the $6,063, 38.2% retracement. The spread closed at $9.25 contango. Aluminium keeps trading within the range $1,750-1,825 and full spread closed at $25.25 contango. Nickel touched the $12,000 level and bounced back up, being the level still the main support and risking a $800 drop if broken. Cash to 3 months carry remained at $78.50 contango. Zinc is trading above the $2,440 level , but pointing towards the $2,400 level, and having at the $2,550 the main resistance. Cash to 3s closed at $44 backwardation. Lead lost the $1,920 support early this week and has been unable to regain it. Now is testing the $1,860 support after completing a short-term double top. Below the support, $1,830 could be the next target. Cash to 3 closed at $13.25 contango. Tin rose from $17,600 to top at $18,400,with main resistance at the $18,800. Cash to 3 months dropped to just $7 contango.

Precious metals
Gold remains above the $1,400 on US treasury yields drop, but further gains capped by US and European stocks gains. Bond yields are going into negative area, and US Fed and ECB dovish views and support on easing monetary policy when needed also supported precious metals. Today US bank holiday is expected to bring quietness in the market. Silver remains also above the $15 level, trading at $15.24.
Platinum remains steady at $830 and palladium slightly rose, trading at $1,563.

Oil
Brent gained 1.16% yesterday trading at $63.34 and WTI rose +1.16% trading at $57.03.

FX
USD remains steady against the EUR trading at 1.1283 and lost a bit of ground against the GBP, being traded at 1.2578 this morning.

Equities
DAX gained 0.71%, closing at 12,616. DJI gained 0.67% yesterday, closing at 26,966. US Fed rate cut forecast pushed world stocks higher. On the European side, the election of the ECB successor Mrs. Lagarde seems to be taken as a positive choose for the markets. Asian markets finished mixed, with Nikkei +0.3%, HSI at -0.18% and SSEC at -0.48%.

Macro Data
European Retail Sales at 10.00. US Bank holiday in observance of Independence Day. UK Housing Equity Withdrawal at 09.30.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 3

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Base Metals:
Copper broke the $5,950 support and fell towards the $5,850 with main support at $5,800 area. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $18.50 contango. Aluminium keeps trading within the range $1,760-1,825, channel that could bring a move of $75 when breaking the support, towards the $1,700 area. Full spread closed at $25.75 contango. Nickel broke the $12,150 50% Fibonacci retracement and found support at $12,000 level. Current resistance at $12,530 and main support at $11,760. Cas to 3s closed yesterday at $90.50 contango. Zinc keeps trading around the $2,450 level, with $2,400 main support below and $2,550 as resistance. He spread was valued at $58 backwardation. Lead tested the $1,920 resistance after breaking if on Monday and unable to rise through dropped towards the next support at $1,860. Cash to 3s closed at $15.50 contango. Tin suffered a sell-off dropping $1,400 intraday after losing the $18.800 level and found some support at $17,600. Cash to 3 months carry closed at $36 contango.

Precious metals
Gold bounced back up above the $1,400 level after US treasury yields fell. Fears of economic recession and renewed trade concerns not only the US with China but also with the EU, supported the safe haven metal. The support at $1,380 worked and prices topped below the $1,440, highest of the year. Also news from the UK, pointing risks of Brexit, economic concerns and high probabilities of lower interest rates from the Bank of England, supported the upside movement. Silver slightly rose, keeping the support $15 and rising towards the $15.50 trading at $15.31.
Platinum remains steady at $830 and palladium slightly rose, trading at $1,563.

Oil
Brent retraced another -2.30% trading at $64.98 and WTI rose +1.39% trading at $58.7. OPEC agreed on reduction of production till March 2020 during its meetings yesterday, continuing today, but slowing down economy and fears of recession weighted on prices.

FX
USD remains steady against the EUR trading at 1.1283 and rose against the GBP, being traded at 1.2566 this morning.

Equities
DAX traded water, closing at 12,526, up just 0.043%. DJI gained 0.26% yesterday, closing at 26,786. Weak economic data out of US and Europe and trade talks optimism fading, weighted on shares. Asian markets finished mainly down, with Nikkei -0.53%, HSI at -0.29% and SSEC at -1.08%.

Macro Data
Chinese Caixin Services PMI at 52 vs 52.6 forecasted. European Services PMI from 8.15 till 09.00. US Challenger Job Cuts at 12.30, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 13.15, Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims at 13.30, Final Services PMI 14.45, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders at 15.00, Crude Oil Inventories at 15.30 and Natural Gas Storage at 17.00. UK Services PMI at 09.30.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events July 2

By | Market & News | No Comments

Base Metals:
Copper filled yesterday the opening gap of $40 and closed even lower, well below the $6,000, just above the support at the Fibonacci retracement $23.6% $5.940 level, after topping at the 38.2%, $6,070. When breaking through the support, first support is expected at $5,900, and next at the $5,740. Full spread closed at $16.75 contango. Aluminium topped at the $1,840 last week and is retracing towards the $1,780 level, holding at the moment the $1,790. Cash to 3s closed at $23.50 contango. Nickel dropped sharply finding this morning a short-term support at the 50% retracement $12.145 on high stainless steel stocks. Below, the $11,760 could be seen as main support. The spread closed at $84 contango. Zinc is trading at the support $2,450, pointing to the $2,400 when breaking lower, with current main resistance at $2,550. Cash to 3 months carry dropped to $67 backwardation. Lead broke through the $1,920 support, finding some relieve at the $1,890 and having tested the resistance at the $1,920 again, unable to rise through. $1,950 remains as main resistance, with the main support at $1,860. Tin got a hit after losing the $18,800 support and seems to be trading towards the $18,285 first stop. The spread closed at $10 contango.

Precious metals
Gold remained below the $1,400 level after US and China agreed on resume talks on trade war. On the other hand, the presumed way until the agreement would be long, which still could cause turbulences and push safe haven assets. Late in the months FOMC meeting is expected to bring a rate cut of 0.25% as almost 79% of market participants expect. This could also support current level of prices longer. Also Mr. Trump visiting the DMZ between North and South Korea brought pressure to prices, as it was seen as a sign of developments on North-Korean denuclearization. Silver is keeping the $15 support untouched, trading at $15.17.
Platinum and palladium are pushed higher, trading at $839 and $1,555 respectively this morning.

Oil
Brent retraced another -2.30% trading at $64.98 and WTI rose +1.39% trading at $58.7. OPEC agreed on reduction of production till March 2020 during its meetings yesterday, continuing today, but slowing down economy and fears of recession weighted on prices.

FX
USD rose against a basket of major currencies mainly lifted by the outcome of the G20, despite being nothing clear and voices pointing out that the way till reaching an agreement is still long. EUR is trading at 1.1291 and GBP at 1.2644 against the greenback.

Equities
DAX gained 0.99% yesterday, closing at 12,521. DJI rose 0.44%, finishing at 26,717 as US-China truce, agreeing on retaking negotiations on trade, supported stocks. Asian markets finished mixed, with Nikkei +0.11%, HSI at +1.19% and SSEC at +0.04%.

Macro Data
German Retail Sales down -0.6% from +0.5 forecasted. European PPI at 10.00. US Wards Total Vehicle Sales during the day. Uk Construction PMI at 09.30 and 10-y Bond auction. OPEC-JMMC Meetings all day.
This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved