Key events January 21

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Base metals:
Copper is sharply retracing today after breaking the $6,240 support yesterday, holding currently the $6,150 short-time support towards the $6,100 after LME stocks went up 38,700 tm. Cash to 3s was valued at $25.75 contango. Aluminium remains steady holding the $1,800 support level, still having a level below at $1,790 area. And above the $1,840 main resistance. Full spread closed at $6.50 contango with some $13 contango in February and around $6 contango in March dates. Nickel is holding the $13,700 support, but risking to go through the support towards the $12,850 area. Full spread closed at $19.50 contango. Zinc topped below the $2,460 and retraced towards the $2,400 support. Bounced again up as supply concerns arise. Lead broke through the $1,950 support after spiking last week till the $2,040. Below the $1,900 remain as main support. Cash to 3s was valued at $8 contango. Tin retraced after topping at $17,900having main support below at $17. Above $18,600 could be seen as next resistance. The spread valued as $44.

Precious metals
Gold retraced below the $1,560 after topping today at $1,568, despite the drop on world stocks retracing from all-time highs. Silver remains above the $18. US-China trade deal effects expected to be limited in the global economic development and political situation in the US together with new virus appeared in China, seem to bring support somehow.
Platinum remains also above the $1,000 at $1,002 this morning and palladium retraced $100 being traded at $2,455 today.

Oil
Brent got a support on concerns of Libya production cuts, arising supply concerns, and WTI remains steady at $58.55. #

FX
The EUR remains steady against the USD trading still at 1.1090 and the GBP slightly rose trading now at 1.3000.

Equities
DAX is losing some 0.70% today trading this morning at 13,454 almost 95 points lower. DJI finished at 29,166 losing almost 0.40%. Asian markets finished all down with Nikkei -0.91%, SSEC at -1.41% and HSI at -2.81%.

Macro Data

WEF Annual Meetings day 1. European and German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 10.00. UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate at 09.30.

This report was written at 9.00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2020 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events December 17

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Base Metals:
Copper is trading around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at the $6,200 level, and trying to move towards the $6,300 next target. Support below remains at 50%, $6,070. Current resistance is set at $6,200 and above $6,300 could be seen as main target. US-China “phase-one” trade deal is giving support to base metals prices. Cash to 3 months carry finished at just $6 contango, trading this morning at $13 as Cash-Jan20 was valued yesterday at $7.5 backwardation and this morning is trading at level. Aluminium keeps trading within the $1,730-1,800 range at $1,770 level. The spread closed at $8 contango. Nickel is experiencing a ceiling at $14,300 support from second half November. When breaking through, next target could be seen at $14,685, 50% Fibonacci retracement. Cash to 3s was valued at $42.50 contango. Zinc finished at the $23.6% retracement and is trading today above the level, towards the next target $2,335. The spread finished at $10.50 back. Lead topped at 61.8% Fibonacci at $1,960 and retraced towards the previous support $1,860 level. Now trading slightly above. When breaking below $1,770 could be seen as main support. The spread finished at $19.50 contango yesterday. Tin keeps topping at the $17,460 resistance, with still main support at $15,795. Cash to 3s rose to $43 backwardation from $17.

Precious metals
Gold remains above the $1,475 level, topping at $1,480, support-resistance level that has worked out since October. Above, the $1,510-1,520 area remains as main target. Silver broke above the $17 level and is trading at $17.05 this morning.
Platinum is trading around $930 still today, this morning at $927 and palladium topping just below the $2,000 level at all-time highs at $1,998.

Oil
Oil futures keep the uptrend with Brent up some 0.29% this morning, trading at $65.53 and WTI rising 0.17% till the $60.23 from $60.08 yesterday.

FX
The USD stabilized around the 1.1140 against the EUR after the US-China agreement. GBP retraced some 0.56% after the general elections effect and Brexit forecast on the table, and is trading at 1.3255 against the USD.

Equities
Dax is some 0.94% up this morning till the 13,407. DJI rose 0.36% yesterday till the 28,235. Asian markets also profited from the US-China phase one deal and finished up Nikkei +0.47%, HSI +1.06% and SSEC +1.27%.

Macro Data
European Trade Balance at 10.00. UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations at 11.00. US Building Permits, Housing Starts at 13.30, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production at 14.15. JOLTS Job Openings at 15.00. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism during the day.

This report was written at 9:15. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events December 12

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Base metals:
Copper’s technical move continued and therefore it went further up yesterday. With the high at $6158 the previous trading high of $6170 from 19.07.19 was almost reached. This morning we are trading at around $6150 with no signs of weakness although profit taking could set in at any time. After yesterday’s FOMC meeting with no change in interest rates the market expects that there will be no change in the interest rate policy in the foreseeable future. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $28.75 contango. Aluminium is trading slightly higher at $1,766 this morning. As a sign of weakness aluminium premiums in Japan eased to $83 down from previous $97. The spread closed at $8.75 contango. Nickel went up sharply yesterday and is trading further up this morning around $13,990. Indonesia’s President Widodo said that there will be no going back on his policy to curb nickel ore exports despite an official complaint from the EU via WTO. Cash to 3 months carry was at $64,5 contango. Zinc trades slightly higher this morning at $2240. The spread closed at $3.5 contango. Lead went up yesterday and is trading steady this morning at around $1935. Cash to 3s closed at $13.25 contango. Tin is trading at $17,220 slightly down from yesterday’s closing levels. Full spread closed at $28 backwardation.

Precious metals
The group is trading in green with gold at $1,473. The next resistance can be expected around its 100-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around both sitting around the $1,490 level. Palladium is going from one record high to another and platinum played catch-up along with silver. Trading at $1,920, $938 and $16.86 respectively. The FED decision and the outlook to leave the rates on the current level for the foreseeable future helped the group directly and indirectly. Directly because it makes the marginal cost of holding the non-interest-bearing metals cheaper and indirectly through a softer USD making the metals relatively cheaper for foreign investors. Today’s UK election might give further support to the group whereas the ECB decision/press conference is not expected to bring a change to the fundamentals, so should have only limited influence on the group.

Oil
Oil keeps trading sideways, BRT currently at $ 67.22 and WTC at $ 58.74

FX
The USD fell to 1.1138 currently after yesterdays FOMC Meeting. Interests remained unchanged as expected, but FED Chairman Powell expects to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future ( quote ). The GBP also jumped ahead of the US elections today, currently trading at 1.3217.

Equities
The next round of higher US import taxes on Chinese products is due on the 15th of Dec, with that in mind and the bullish comments from the FED meeting the markets remain trading sideways. DAX closing at +0.58%, DJI at +0.11%; NIKKEI at +0.14%, SSEC at -0.03% and HSI at +1.33%.

Macro Data
Today we have at 07:00 German Consumer Price Index, at 10:00 EURO Zone Industrial Production, at 12:45 the ECB Interest and Deposit Rate Decisions, at 13:30 US Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims.

This report was written at 9:00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events December 10

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Base Metals:
Copper keeps rising on good Chinese import figures but export ones capped further gains. Closest support remains at $6,070 and $6,170 could be seen as main resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Cash to 3 months carry was valued at $28.25 contango. Aluminium touched the support $1,730 and went towards the resistance $1,770. Now trading within the range at $1,760. Cash to 3s was valued at $3 backwardation. Nickel is trading within the range $13,700, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and $12,860, support and resistance level in 2019.Cash to 3s closed at $62 contango. Zinc touched the support $2,200 beginning of December and bounced back towards the resistance $2,260, trading now within the range at $2,225. Full spread was valued at $2 back. Lead broke the $1,960 support late November, unable to break through upwards and now trading towards the $1,850 support-resistance level. Cash to 3s closed at $16.50 contango. Tin is trading towards the resistance $17,500 level, with main support at the moment at the $17,000 level.

Precious metals
Gold remains steady above the $1,460 level ahead FOMC meeting, UK elections and coming up tariffs to Chinese imported goods valued more than $150 billion this week. Silver remains below the $17 level trading at the same levels as yesterday at $16.60 this morning.
Platinum rose above the $900 level $902 this morning. Palladium traded at all-time highs yesterday just below the $1,900 level.

Oil
Oil drops 0.20% on weak Chinese export data. Brent is trading at $64.14 and WTI trades at $58.91.

FX
The USD slightly retraced towards the 1.1072 level this morning as worries on persistent trade war and coming up tariffs on Chinese imported goods to the US. Tomorrows FOMC meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. GBP is trading at 1.3139 ahead general elections.

Equities
Dax retraced some 0.46% yesterday till the 13,105 level. DJI dropped 0.38%, finishing below the 28,000 at 27,909. Asian markets finished almost unchanged with Nikkei -0.09%, HSI -0.09% and SSEC +0.1%.

Macro Data
Chinese CPI and PPI year over year in line with expected. French Final Private Payrolls, Industrial Production and Italian Industrial Production from 6.30 to 09.00. German and European ZEW Economic Sentiment at 10.00. US NFIB Small Business Index at 11.00, Revised Nonfarm Productivity and Revised Unit Labor Costs at 13.30. US 10-year Bond Auction at 18.01.

This report was written at 9:00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events December 4

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Base metals:
Copper went down yesterday and closed just below the 100 day moving average at $5815 but holding support above $5800. Cash to 3 months carry finished at $25.25 contango. Aluminium also went down after failing to get through the resistance at around $1800 and closed at $1766. The spread closed down at only $8.5 backwardation. Both Copper and Aluminium are trading relatively unchanged from last night’s closing levels this morning. Nickel dropped further losing some support at around $13,500 yesterday and is again the top losing metal this morning trading down another 1.25% down from last night’s close at $13,210 at the time of writing. The next support should be found around $12,800 – $12,900. Cash to 3 months carry finished at $60 contango. Zinc was down yesterday but is able to make some gains overnight trading at $2,225 this morning and makes it the top winner this morning. The spread closed at $11.00 backwardation. Lead also closed down yesterday at $1,900 and is defending that level this morning. Cash to 3s closed at $15.75 contango. Tin made some gains yesterday closing at $16,750 and is holding this level and trading unchanged this morning. The spread closed at $21 backwardation.

Precious metals
The group got a boost yesterday from statements of POTUS that the trade war might get longer and broader in scope. The volatility caused by statements about rising tensions or easing on the trade war front keep the market moving accordingly, still. This time it gives gold and its peers in the safe-haven group a boost. Gold is trading at $1,482, silver at $17.25, platinum at $912 and palladium at $1,858. Palladium is trading just below its all-time high at $1,864 from Monday this week. 122% higher from its Sep 18 low at $840. The physical demand (high) and supply (tight) plays a significant role in this adjacent through the last 15months. Though Palladium can be substituted by platinum at least partly in catalysts applications, it might take some more months till we see the industry moving in this direction.

Oil
Oil keeps jumping up, awaiting production cuts to be announced on the OPEC meeting starting today in Vienna. BRT trading at $64.80 and WTC at $56.15.

FX
The USD remains under pressure, as Trump suggested yesterday that the US/China trade war may last even longer ( past US elections ). USD/EUR currently trading at 1.1074, GBP at 1.2989.

Equities
The weaker outlook on the US/China trade war brought mainly Asian shares under pressure. NIKKEI closing at -1.05%, HSI at -1.24% and SSEC -0.23%. DAX trading sideways, closing at +0.19%, DJI closing in line with the Asian markets at -1.01%.

Macro Data
Today we have at 09:00 the EURO Market Services PMI, at 13:15 the US ADP Employment Change, at 14:45 the US Market Services PMI, at 15:00 the US Non-Manufacturing PMI and at 15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks.

This report was written at 9:00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events November 29

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Base Metals:
Copper topped at $5,970, September high resistance and dropped afterwards towards the $5,800 support, testing the $5,900 level today. The spread was valued at $22.75 contango. Aluminium also topped at $1,775 23.6% Fibo retracement and bounced back down towards the support $1,746. Cash to 3s was valued at $11.25 backwardation. Nickel tested the 38.2% retracement to retrace afterwards and breaking through the 50% support $14,150. Currently trading towards the $13,540 support area 61.8% below the $13,900 level. Cash to 3s closed at $41.5 contango. Zinc is retesting this morning the $2,270 support, and below has the $2,200 next target. The spread was valued at $24.50 back. Lead is trading within the range $1,940-1,980 having space towards the $1,880 area, with $1,850 as main support. The spread closed at $15.25 contango. Tin remains topping around the $16,500 area and getting support at $16,300. The spread was valued at just $4 contango.

Precious metals
Gold prices remain trading in the range $1,455-1,460. Rising tensions between the US and China regarding Hong Kong could weight on trade deal and its giving support to safe haven assets. Silver remains steady around the $17 level.
Platinum is trading at $895 and Palladium sharply rose trading above the $1,840 level.

Oil
Brent remains steady down just -0.08% till the $62.98 and WTI -0.29% finishing at $57.93.

FX
The USD remains steady against the EUR trading at 1.1007 and GBP 1.2905.

Equities
Dax is dropping this morning some 0.37% less than 50 points trading at 13,195. DJI rose yesterday 0.15%, further gains were capped as US-China tensions arose due to the US legislation backing Hong Kong’s protesters, and concerns about how this would affect developments on trade deal. Asian markets finished mainly down with Nikkei -0.49%, HSI -2.06% and SSEC -0.61%.

Macro Data

German Retail Sales -1.9%, French Consumer Spending, Preliminary CPI and GDP in line with expected. German Unemployment Change at 08.55. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate at 09.00. CPI and Core CPI Flash Estimate and Unemployment rate at 10.00. Tomorrow at 01.00 Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI.

This report was written at 9:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events November 27

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Base Metals:
Copper closed yesterday above the $5,900 and is currently trading towards the $6,000 resistance and highest of the month area, as Mr. Trump comments on US-China trade dispute, lasting for more than a year. The spread closed at $16.25 contango. Aluminium also rose above the $1,765 resistance after breaking through the $1,746 yesterday just before the close, hoping on higher demand on US-China trade agreement hopes. Cash to 3s was valued at $11 backwardation. Nickel keeps trading within the range $14,150-14,760 with no major influence from the rest of the group. The spread closed at $48 contango. Zinc bounced back up after touching support at October lowest, but still suffering pressure and risking to drop towards the $2,190 area. Cash to 3s finished at $24.75 back. Lead dropped below the $1,940 and traded just above the $1,900 yesterday, having space towards the $1,880 area, with $1,850 as main support. The spread closed at 15.25 contango. Tin is trading below the $16,500 resistance level and still above the $16,300. The spread was valued at just 5 contango.

Precious metals
Gold prices slightly rose above the $1,455 topping just around the $1,461. Comments from Mr. Trump about the trade agreement with China to be reached soon are currently muted in the safe haven assets markets but expected to bring pressure once officially announced if happens. US consumer confidence below than expected and despite good New Home sales released yesterday brought support to the group. Silver rose around the $17 level, trading this morning at $17.05.
Platinum is trading at $904 and Palladium slightly retraced despite trading still above the $1,800 level.

Oil
Brent rose +0.95% till the $63.21 and WTI +0.66% finishing at $58.35.

FX
The USD remains steady against the EUR trading at 1.1008 and GBP 1.2828, as Washington keeps giving hopes to the market of an agreement to be reached very soon.

Equities
Dax traded water down just 0.076% some 10 points finishing at 13,236. DJI rose 0.2% and closed at 28,121. Asian markets finished mixed with Nikkei +0.28%, HSI +0.04% and SSEC -0.13%.

Macro Data
German Import Prices -0.1% vs -0.2% forecasted. US Core Durable Goods Order, Durable Goods Orders, Prelim GDP, Unemployment Claims at 13.30. Chicago PMI 14.45. Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Pending Home Sale, Personal Income at 15.00. Crude Oil Inventories at 15.30. Natural Gas Storage 16.00. Beige Book at 19.00.

This report was written at 8:30. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events November 26

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Base Metals:
Copper rose yesterday above the $5,900 resistance after lower stocks and cancelled warrants reaction, but short-lived, back down towards the $5,850 support, trading now within the range. Cash to 3 closed at $16.75 contango. Aluminium topped yesterday at $1,746 resistance but keeps the closest support at $1,730. Above, $1,763 seems to be the next price-interest level. Full spread closed at $9.25 backwardation. Nickel touched the resistance level at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement $14.760 yesterday. Trading now within the range with support at $14,150. The spread closed at $53 contango. Zinc is trading around the support area $2,250-2,280. Below, the $2,220 level can be seen as a support. The spread closed at $24.50 backwardation. Lead broke through the $1,940 level and has now space towards the $1,880 area, with $1,850 as main support. The spread closed at 17.75 contango. Tin is trading below the $15,400 resistance level. The spread was valued on Friday at $22 contango with backwardation in the other monthly dates.

Precious metals
Gold prices remain steady around the $1,455 level, meanwhile American stocks touch or trade very close to all-time highs. Silver remains below the $17 resistance trading at $16.91. Optimism over a trade deal on “phase-one”, as negotiators named it, is bringing pressure to the safe haven assets.
Platinum is trading at $900. Palladium topped below the all-time highs resistance $1,820 level, at $1,818.

Oil
Brent slightly retraced yesterday 0.11% till the $62.55 and WTI retraced 0.08% some $0.05 till the $57.91, with US-China trade deal very close as per official declarations brought support.

FX
The USD keeps rising on hopes of trade agreement. EUR is trading at 1.1014 and GBP 1.2874.

Equities
Dax finished yesterday slightly down, recovering this morning some 0.63% till the 13,246 level. DJI rose above the 28,000 level, some 0.68% finishing at 28,066 revisiting all-time highs touched early November. Asian markets finished mixed with Nikkei +0.35%, HSI -0.14% and SSEC stable +0.03%.

Macro Data
German GfK Consumer Climate inline with forecasted. US Goods Trade Balance and Preliminary Wholesale Inventories at 13.30. HPI and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI at 14.00. CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales at 15.00.

This report was written at 9:00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events November 7

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Base Metals:
Copper prices are right now at the same level than yesterday morning although we had a decent move to the downside late yesterday evening trading at $5869 as a low. That downside move appeared after news that the Sino-US talks drag on. The full spread closed at $18.5 contango. Aluminium is nearly unchanged this morning trading at $1806 with only about 1200 lots turnover so far. The spread was valued at $6 backwardation. Nickel stabilised yesterday and is higher this morning trading at $16,350 at this moment. The spread closed $39 backwardation. Zinc is trading at the $2,484 this morning slightly higher than yesterday’s close at $2475. The spread closed at $43.75 backwardation. Lead is trading slightly lower this morning still trying to find any substantial support level. Last it was trading at $2103. Cash to 3 months was around $2.00 backwardation. Tin still keeps trading above the support of $16,400 at $16,585 right now. The full spread was valued at $25.00 contango.

Precious metals
Gold is under pressure this morning again after dropping more than $20 on Tuesday. This morning it is trading at around $1,485 coming off from $1,490. The support level is around $1481. Lower is the 100-day and 200-day average at $1,476 and $1,390 respectively. If gold drops further, we might see a sharp reaction, because at one point the (net) long speculators will (have to) close their positions. From a support point of view, we might see gold moving up again if the rumoured success in the trade talks are not materializing and or another external shock comes into play. Silver followed gold and is also under pressure trading at $17.59 this morning. The PGM metals are holding up quite well. Palladium is trading at $1,799 while platinum trades at $932.

Oil
Oil is relatively unchanged after some overnight losses due to caution over the US/China trade talks. BRT is currently trading at $ 62.26 and WTC at $ 56.15

FX
The USD is moving sideways, as hopes of a quick signing of a trade deal get disappointed, which might bring further pressure to the USD, which is currently trading at 1.1067. GBP is waiting for results from the Bank of England meeting today, market is looking for answers how the BoE will respond to Brexit uncertainties. GBP/USD currently trading at 1.2842.

Equities
Dax remains strong, closing +0.24% at 13179 points yesterday, after trading on a new yearly high of 13187 points. DJI did not really move yesterday, closing virtually unchanged at 27492 points. NIKKEI closed at +0.11%, HSI at +0.07%. Market is still very cautious, waiting for results out of the US/China trade talks.

Macro Data
We have at 10:00 the European commission releasing his Economic Growth Forecasts, at 12:00 the results from the BoE meeting in the UK and at 13:30 US Initial jobless claims.

This report was written at 9:00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved

Key events November 5

By | Market & News | No Comments

Base Metals:
Copper prices remain strong after Antofagasta cut output forecast due to protests in Chile affecting production. Resistance at the moment remains at $5,940, with closest support at $5,870, and main below at $5,800. Cash to 3s was valued at $23.25. Aluminium completed the double bottom figure, with target below the $1,820. Rising above the next one could be seen at $1,870. The spread closed at $6.25 backwardation. Nickel dropped below the short-time support $16,550 and is trading towards the $16,000 support at the moment. The spread was valued at $9 backwardation, easing from almost $30 yesterday morning. Zinc remains steady, below the $2,576 at 50% Fibonacci retracement. The closest support can be seen below at $2,490. Cash to 3s closed at $62 backwardation. Lead found support at the $2,150 level for 4th day in a row. Below the $2,110 could be seen as next support. Above, the $2,250 remains as main resistance. Cash to 3 months carry remains at around $9.50 back. Tin is holding the $16,400 support, with main below at the $15,800 level with first stop at the $16,200 area. Above $17,000 can be seen as main resistance. Cash to 3s remains steady in contango area at $27.

Precious metals
Gold remained above the $1,500 level topping yesterday below the $1,515, trading this morning at $1,505.74. USD rising against a basket of major currencies as US-China trade deal seems to be closer than ever, is bringing pressure to the safe haven metals. Silver remains around the $18, this morning at $18.08.
Platinum retraced below the $950 till the $935 this morning and palladium sharply retraced when getting close to all-time highs again, back below the $1,773.

Oil
Oil kept moderately rising with Brent some 0.55% finishing at $62.13 and WTI up 0.60% till the $56.57.

FX
The USD slightly rose against a basket of major currencies due to the trade deal forecast to be signed already this month. EUR is trading at 1.1133 and GBP at 1.2893

Equities
Dax sharply rose above the 13,000 finishing at 13,136 yesterday some 1.35% up. DJI gained 0.42%, finishing at 27,462 as trade del hopes help. Asian markets finished mainly up with Nikkei +1.76%after bank holiday, HSI +0.2% and SSEC +0.54%.

Macro Data
Chinese Caixin Services PMI lower than the 51.5 expected, 51.1. European PPI at 10.00. US Trade Balance at 13.30. US Final Services PMI at 14.45, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings 15.00, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism along the day.

This report was written at 09:00. All times referenced are GMT.

Disclaimer
IFCM Commodities GmbH is a tied agent of INTL FCStone Ltd. INTL FCStone Ltd, a company registered in England & Wales and a wholly owned subsidiary of INTL FCStone Inc. [NASDAQ: INTL], is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN: 446717]. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Ltd. References to and discussions of Structured OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets LLC, a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The content of this document is for information purposes only and may not be taken as representation, advice, or inducement to enter into any contract, investment or arrangement. INTL FCStone Ltd fully disclaims and shall be held harmless against any liability howsoever arising, that may be incurred or suffered by any party from the reliance, use, misuse, reproduction (in part or whole) and dissemination of such information. © 2019 INTL FCStone Ltd. All Rights Reserved